Seminole Crop E News

Agricultural News for Farmers and Agribusiness in SW Georgia

El Nino – It should be raining next 2 weeks – Prob not

Posted by romeethredge on June 17, 2015

Here’s an El Nino update from UGA Ag Climatologist, Pam Knox. From this we may have some wet weather in the near future then the forecast for a dry mid summer, and rain this winter.

“In his briefing for the Appalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River stakeholder group today, Florida State Climatologist David Zierden noted that the eastern Pacific Ocean is nearly at the threshold for a strong El Nino now and should pass that threshold in the next month.  He presented some information about what to expect from a strong El Nino based on composites of weather information from the strongest El Nino events.  His summary slide is shown below.

Based on composites from the strongest El Nino years, May and June (top map) were expected to be wetter than normal in Texas and Oklahoma as well as the Southeast.  The composite-predicted rainfall has been very accurate for the southern Plains, although not as good for the Southeast, where we are close to normal. In July and August (bottom map), the composite suggests that a pattern shift may occur and that most of the South, including all of the Southeast, could go into a dry spell.  Often those dry spells are associated with above normal temperatures.  They may also be related to tropical seasons with lower than average activity in El Nino summers.zierden strong el nino impacts

Since El Nino typically brings rain to most of the Southeast in the winter, David was asked when the change from the late summer dryness to fall and winter wet conditions might occur.  He noted that it has occurred as early as early October in 2002, but in most years it is late October into November before the Southeast returns to rainy conditions.  Once the transition occurs, however, rainy weather may continue so farmers should watch for those conditions in the fall to help plan harvesting schedules.”

Go to Pam’s Blog, Climate and Agriculture in The Southeast

2 Responses to “El Nino – It should be raining next 2 weeks – Prob not”

  1. Reblogged this on Thomas County Ag.

  2. I have now heard that El Nino could be weak to moderate this season according to several Models…

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